The market often moves in mysterious ways, and the Nifty's price action over the past four weeks bears an uncanny resemblance to the same period a year ago. Here’s a detailed comparison:
2023
Week 1: June 26 - June 30
Breakout from past consolidation on Wednesday
Significant gains every day.
Week 2: July 3 - July 7
Continued strong upward movement.
Friday ends with a Bearish Engulfing pattern, indicating profit booking.
Week 3: July 10 - July 14
Consolidation throughout the week.
Breakout on Friday.
Week 4: July 17 - July 21
Rally extends for four days, with Thursday being a big green day.
Friday sees a gap down and closes below Thursday's low, signalling the end of the rally.
2024
Week 1: June 24 - June 28
Breakout from past consolidation on Tuesday
Consistent gains every day with a small red candle on Friday.
Week 2: July 1 - July 5
Continued strong upward movement.
Thursday and Friday begin a sideways consolidation.
Week 3: July 8 - July 12
Consolidation throughout the week.
Breakout on Friday.
Week 4: July 15 - July 21
Rally extends for three days (Wednesday being a holiday), with Thursday being a big green day.
Friday ends with a Bearish Engulfing pattern, closing near Thursday’s low, signalling the end of the rally.
In 2023, the price action in the 4 weeks as above was followed by a two-week fall, followed by a four-week sideways consolidation, eventually leading to a two-week rally that pushed the market to all-time highs.
Will 2024 follow the same path? The striking similarity between these periods raises intriguing questions about the market’s mystical behaviour. 😯 💡
The upcoming budget event could significantly influence the market's direction. Only time will tell.
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